The border that slices through Kashmir is a treacherous place, now more than ever. Since the United Nations divided Kashmir between India and Pakistan in 1949, the two sides have been fighting over this fabled land. They have gone to war over Kashmir twice, in 1948 and 1965. Even in peaceful years, deadly skirmishes have become routine, raising fears of a clash between the world’s newest nuclear powers. Since last May, when India and Pakistan openly tested nuclear weapons for the first time, the threat of escalation has been all the more real. As the clashes mounted last week, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif marked the anniversary of the tests by warning that his countrymen “are confident for the first time in their history that in the eventuality of an armed attack they will be able to meet it on equal terms.”
If nukes are the ultimate fear on the Subcontinent, Kashmir is the unpredictable trigger. Nine years ago guerrillas in Indian Kashmir began fighting to free the Muslim territory from the largely Hindu nation of India. Delhi has since quashed the domestic insurgency, but outsiders have taken up the cause. Pakistani Kashmiris, Pakistani volunteers and veterans of the Afghan mujahedin now lead the rebellion.
The exact identity of the recent invaders remains unclear. Pakistan has connived for decades to keep tensions high in Kashmir. All Pakistani political parties vow to “liberate” Kashmir from India, and so do Pakistani generals. They are eager to avenge their losses in the wars over Kashmir, or at least to appear eager, which justifies Pakistan’s huge military budget. Normally, the shadowy military secret service, InterServices Intelligence (ISI), is the main contact between the Pakistani Army and the militants. It’s possible, analysts say, that the ISI planned the recent infiltration, and even that it did so without the knowledge or approval of Nawaz. The Nawaz government denied Indian charges that Pakistani troops had accompanied the invaders. But that only raises an even more alarming possibility: that a third party set off ground-to-air combat between South Asia’s nuclear powers.
Delhi could hardly conceal its embarrassment. Usually the rebels cannot enter Indian Kashmir under winter conditions, when 40-foot snowdrifts block the 17,000-foot mountain passes from Pakistan. But every spring the guerrillas infiltrate the high mountains above the Indian Kashmiri town of Kargil–then disperse to organize minor terrorist campaigns. This time they came in record numbers, unusually well equipped with snowmobiles and mortars. Yet they penetrated more than three miles, far enough to cut the only highway linking the Indian Kashmir capital of Srinagar to the strategic northern town of Leh. How did they get so far undetected? “A serious intelligence lapse” on the Indian side, says retired Lt. Gen. Satish Nambiar, head of a Delhi think tank. “This wasn’t the usual ragtag collection of infiltrators. This was an intricate operation involving highly trained men that had to have been set up by the Pakistan military.”
Delhi officials also sought to downplay the downing of the MiGs, which are the backbone of its Air Force. They said the first MiG was felled by engine trouble, and that the second was hit by ground fire when its pilot flew in close, attempting to aid his countryman. That explanation drew skepticism: both planes came down several kilometers inside Pakistani territory.
By late last week, both Delhi and Islamabad seemed eager to restore calm. After setting off the first underground explosion last year, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had embarked on peace talks with Nawaz, culminating in their “Friendship Bus” trip across the India-Pakistan border in February. Now, after downing the MiGs, it was Pakistan’s turn to pull back from the brink. “We would like to have peace in the region,” said Pakistani Information Minister Mushahid Hussain. “We do not want to raise the temperature, and we hope the Indians will see sense.”
Vajpayee huddled in Delhi with his generals and security chiefs, trying to figure out how to prevent confrontation with Pakistan and clear all the infiltrators off the mountains. It won’t be easy. Vajpayee’s government got a huge boost in popularity by testing India’s nuclear warheads last year. But that soon faded, and he lost a vote of confidence engineered by opposition leader Sonia Gandhi last month. With elections set for September, Vajpayee can’t afford to look soft on Pakistan. Nor can Gandhi appear less than staunchly patriotic. Born in Italy, Gandhi re-emerged last week as leader of the Congress party, after resigning under fire from rivals who say India should not be led by a foreigner. It’s an awkward time for India’s leading politicians to play peacemaker with Pakistan. It’s also necessary, now more than ever.
