Despite their visceral appeal, though, term limits will ultimately prove a fraud. First, they are probably unconstitutional: states will have a hard time restricting the federal government without a constitutional amendment. And even if they survive a court test, term limits would become just another quick fix that fails to correct deep-seated problems.

People have the power to vote out incumbents; they just don’t use it. With automatic turnover, “legacy seats” will proliferate as popular incumbents perpetuate themselves with spouses and favored heirs. Lawmakers will work deals to protect committee assignments, and big states–like California-will wield inordinate power. The permanent bureaucracy, including 23,000 registered lobbyists and about 24,000 congressional staffers, will gain clout as the keepers of institutional memory.

Many people blame Washington’s woes on the stranglehold that special interests have on Congress. But unless term limits are accompanied by campaign-finance reform, legislators would still be dependent on PAC (political-action committee) money. “A government of permanent incumbents would be replaced by a government of PACs,” predicts Public Citizen’s Michael Waldman. Not so, say supporters of term limitations. They point to the array of powerful lobbies opposing Initiative 553. The National Rifle Association, Philip Morris U.S.A. and Anheuser-Busch Cos. have all ponied up to protect their investment in the current congressional lineup, and “they’re just proving our case,” says Mary Ann Best, executive director of the Washington-based Citizens for Congressional Reform. Lobbyists oppose term limits because they don’t want to make more work for themselves. Still, there is little doubt they could buy each new set of lawmakers-and freshman legislators come cheaper.

The notion of citizen legislators in the tradition of Abraham Lincoln, who served one term in Congress, is the romanticized ideal envisioned by term-limits advocates. But the reality today is that members of Congress, worried about their next job, will be less willing to take tough stands and more inclined to support special interests. And because almost everyone succumbs to Potomac Fever, the capital’s law and lobbying firms would multiply to support the new ruling class.

If the goal of term limits is to make elections more competitive, that could be accomplished short of letting the guillotine fall on incumbents. The real answer is a combination of spending limits, free television time and public financing instead of private bankrolling. But there hasn’t been a serious vote on campaign-finance reform on the House floor for 15 years. And backers of term limits want to lift recent bans on speaking fees and outside income. “At least when they had honoraria, they were forced to talk to people and listen,” says Eddie Mahe, a GOP political consultant and founder of Americans To Limit Congressional Terms. “I don’t care if they visit every resort in the country.”

Congress is trying to appease the public’s volcanic anger by throwing in a couple of sacrifices. Mississippi Rep. Jamie Whitten, elected 33 days before Pearl Harbor, is expected to be unceremoniously dumped by the House Democratic Caucus as chairman of the powerful Appropriations Committee. Texas Rep. Henry Gonzalez, a 30-year veteran who heads the Banking Committee, is likely to meet the same fate. “They are 30-second spots for term limits,” explains a member of the Democratic leadership. But more than two heads will have to roll before the public is satisfied. If Congress does not reform itself, the momentum for term limits can only grow. Challengers will force incumbents to take the pledge, and the resulting steamroller could level the playing field after all.

House of Representatives NAME YEARS SERVED J. Whitten, Miss. 50 C. Bennett, Fla. 43 J. Brooks, Texas 39 W. Natcher, Ky. 38 D. Fascell, Fla. 37 The Senate NAME YEARS SERVED S. Thurmond, S.C. 36 R. Byrd, W.Va. 33 Q. Burdick, N.D. 31 C. Pell, R.I. 31 E. Kennedy, Mass. 29

SOURCES: Congressional Directory 1991-92, “Politics in America 1992”