New York
He once looked as if he would cruise to his fourth gubernatorial term. Instead Cuomo is fighting for his political life against Republican George Pataki, a one-term state senator who promises to cut state income taxes. In a marathon five-hour interview with The New York Times last week, Cuomo acknowledged underachieving during his 12 years in office, but blamed a sour economy and a divided state legislature. He’ll need a big turnout from blacks and other traditional Democratic constituencies to survive. Mario Cuomo, Tom Foley
Washington
The last speaker of the House to be voted out of office was Republican William Penning-ton in 1860. Foley could be the next. He drew just 35 percent of the vote in last month’s primary and trails Spokane attorney George Nethercutt by 14 points in the latest poll. He fueled the image of an arrogant, out-of-touch incumbent when he sued last year to block a term-limit initiative approved by state voters. One television spot reportedly ready to air asks, “Which Washington does Tom Foley represent?”
Tennessee
The six-term congressman, who sponsored an alternative to the Clinton health-care plan, was expected to make quick work of Republican actor-attorney Fred Thompson. But he lost his labor support after voting for NAFTA. Blacks are angry with him because he opposed the racial-justice amendment to the crime bill. Even moderate supporters are upset by his call for the impeachment of a federal judge for not expediting death-penalty cases.
Tennessee
The chairman of the Senate Budget Committee aspires to be majority leader. First he’ll have to contend with William Frist, a wealthy Nashville surgeon. Sasser is trying to buck the COP trend in the South by touting school prayer and bashing illegal immigrants–what few of them there are in Tennessee. He’s even running ads on Rush Limbaugh shows. If he holds his seat, will Democrats make him majority leader after such a campaign?
California
A year ago she seemed destined to follow father Pat and brother Jerry into the governor’s office. Now she is trailing GOP incumbent Pete Wilson badly, plagued by lack of a coherent message. Genes may not be enough to save her.
Two of George Bush’s sons could become governors. George Jr. is in a dead heat with Democrat Arm Richards (below). He may get an edge from the return of GOP women alienated by the crudity of Clayton Williams, Richards’s 1990 opponent. Floridians’ anger about crime and immigration will help Jeb, a Miami businessman, against Democrat Law-ton Chiles.
Massachusetts
The patriarch of the Democrats’ liberal dynasty faces the scion of another political family. Mitt Rounney, son of former Michigan governor George Romney, is hammering Kennedy with ads on welfare and rising crime. The past is haunting Teddy as well: ex-wife Joan wants to reopen her divorce settlement.
California
Feinstein authored the assault-weapons ban in the Senate. But GOP Rep. Mike Huffington is still painting her as soft on crime. Larry McCarthy, creator of the Willie Horton ad, devised a spot attacking her vote to confirm a federal judge who overturned a brutal killer’s death sentence. The tag line: FEINSTEIN’S JUDGES LET KILLERS LIVE AFTER VICTIMS DIED.
Texas
She should be dominating the crime issue. Crime is down in Texas, and Richards appointed a new parole-board chairman who cut paroles in half. She’s building more prison cells than all her predecessors combined. But voter fears–kindled by television news and its preoccupation with sensational crime–are undermining her record. In the end, however, history may weigh more heavily. Texas hasn’t re-elected a governor in 20 years.
